Title

Amy Coney Barrett and the Potential for a More Independent and Ideologically Moderate US Supreme Court

Creator

Chondrelis, Foivos

Abstract

This paper explores Justice Amy Coney Barrett's independence and ideological inclinations during the 2021-22 and 2023-24 SCOTUS terms. Instigated by recent media coverage reporting on an increasingly independent and moderate Justice Barrett, it explores the validity of those claims, which can prove significantly consequential considering that her confirmation fulfilled a Republican goal of cementing a conservative supermajority on the high Court. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, this study employs voting alignment analysis and an innovative application of OpenAI’s large language model (LLM) and the probabilistic analysis of the Bradley-Terry model, to explore changes in Barrett’s jurisprudence. Results indicate a significant increase in Barrett’s alignment with liberal justices and, from a textual comparison of judicial opinions by OpenAI’s API, a marked rise in independence from ideological partisanship, distinguishing her from her conservative colleagues, and a measurable ideological moderation, with Barrett emerging as a critical player in the Supreme Court's dynamics.

Keywords

SCOTUS

Justice

Independence

Subject

International Relations

Type

Oral Presentation

Course

IR3120 L5 Research Methods in International Relations

Instructor

Fokas, Effie

Location

Art Center Auditorium

Event

Year 2025 | 9th Annual Student Research and Creative Arts Symposium