Title

Geopolitical Risk and Tanker Rate Persistence: A Comparative Event Study of 45 Historical Events

Creator

Hsu, Pu Yu

Abstract

This project dedicats to discover which types of geopolitical events cause profound influence on thanker freight rate by selecting 45 major events from 2000 to 2026, events are classified into 7 main categories and each category has at least 4 sub-categories. After collating Cumulative Abnormal Rates (CAR) in the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) across 4 types of window (anticipation, imediate, short-term, and medium-term), the primary measurement of peresistence mean of medium term.The findings show, chokepoint & maritime events and piracy incidents have the longest persistence to tanker rate, mainly because incrased tonne-mile by physical disruptions. On the other side, freight rates react opposite with less persistance in the events related to demand side like Economic crises and OPEC/Supply shocks.

Keywords

geopolitcs

volatility of tanker freight rate

cumulative abnormal rates

Subject

Shipping Management

Date Available

May 27, 2026

Type

Poster

Course

MG 4880 SEMINAR IN SHIPPING MANAGEMENT

Instructor

Kokosalakis, Georgios

Session

Poster Session

Location

Student Lounge - Main Corridor

Meet the Artist Time

May 27: 12.00 - 15.00

Event

Year 2026 | 10th Annual Student Research and Creative Arts Symposium